March 16-31, 2025

2025-03-31

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Poilievre to speak with BNN Bloomberg: Canada's federal election campaign is heating up. This morning, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre announced plans to fast-track approvals for transmission lines, railways and pipelines in a pre-approved “national energy corridor.” The system would transport resources within Canada and to the world while bypassing the United States. Over the weekend Poilievre proposed a plan to scrap capital gains taxes if the proceeds from an asset sale are reinvested in Canada. The announcements are being made as the Conservatives fall behind the Liberals in some polls and amid reports of disputes over strategy within the Conservative campaign. We'll discuss all of this – and much more – when Poilievre speaks with BNN Bloomberg’s Merella Fernandez this afternoon at 3:30 p.m. EDT on The Close.

NDP proposes grocery price cap: Meanwhile, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has announced a plan to make food more affordable for Canadians. Singh says that if the NDP were to form a government, the party would introduce an emergency price cap on basic food items. Under the proposal, the first approach would be to negotiate the caps with grocery chains, but if they face pushback, the party says an NDP government wouldn’t hesitate to legislate.

Carney watch: It was a relatively quiet weekend for Liberal party leader Mark Carney, as he met with his campaign team. Carney has a media appearance scheduled in the Toronto area today… he has not taken questions from the media since Friday.

Markets under pressure: Stock markets around the world are down sharply this morning, as investors braced for another set of U.S. trade tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened widespread new tariffs starting Wednesday – though it’s still unclear which countries he plans to target, and at what rate. Constant confusion around U.S. tariff policy, retaliatory actions by key trading partners and broader concerns about an economic slowdown have hammered stocks this month. The S&P 500 has dropped 6.3 per cent so far in March, while Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index is faring relatively better, down 2.5 per cent. It remains to be seen how Canada will be affected by this week’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcements – though Trump said yesterday the tariffs will include all nations, with few (if any) exceptions by country or sector.

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2025-03-28

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Carney responds: Prime Minister Mark Carney has made a stark assessment of where Canada stands, as the U.S. continues to impose a series of punishing trade tariffs. At a news conference yesterday afternoon, Carney said, “It’s clear that the United States is no longer a reliable partner. It is possible that with comprehensive negotiations we will be able to restore some trust, but there will be no turning back. The next government and all that follow will have a fundamentally different relationship with the United States.” Carney says the Canadian government will respond based on what the U.S. administration announces on April 2, the day Trump has promised to unveil another round of import taxes. Carney says Trump reached out to arrange a call and he expects that conversation to take place in the “next day or two.” In an interview on Radio Canada, Cabinet minister Francois Phillipe Champagne said that call will take place today. Carney will also meet with provincial premiers today.

GDP reports mixed: While external threats hover overhead, we have some conflicting signals on the state of the Canadian economy. Gross domestic product expanded by a robust 0.4 per cent in January, the strongest monthly pace since April of last year. Mining and oil and gas extraction as well as manufacturing sectors led the gains. However, Statistics Canada’s estimate for February showed economic growth came to a halt, with gross domestic product coming in essentially unchanged. Growth in the manufacturing and finance sectors were offset by declines in real estate, oil and gas extraction and retail trade.

U.S. inflation persists: Meanwhile one of the economic indicators most closely watched by the U.S. Federal Reserve shows inflation in that country rose at a stubborn pace in February and household demand was weaker than expected. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items, rose 0.4 per cent from January. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending edged up 0.1 per cent after falling in January by the most in nearly four years, which economists blamed on bad weather. Whether the new policies of the Trump administration will lead to higher inflation is a fiercely debated topic south of the border.

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2025-03-27

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Trump targets autos: The auto sector is the latest target of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war, with a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports set to come into effect on April 3 for fully assembled vehicles, and a scheduled expansion to include major automobile parts by May 3. Trump has also followed up with threats to Canada and the EU, saying that if they work together to retaliate, they will face further tariffs. Shares of auto companies around the world are under pressure this morning on the news. Prime Minister Mark Carney says the tariffs are a “direct attack” on Canadian auto workers and his government will respond soon. Carney is convening a meeting of cabinet ministers focused on Canada-U.S. trade to discuss options today. Speaking to reporters yesterday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford expressed his support for retaliatory tariffs, calling for “as much pain as possible to the American people without inflicting pain on the Canadian population.”

Hudbay takes control of Copper Mountain: As the price of copper soars to record highs, one of the metal’s largest Canadian producers is taking steps to consolidate ownership of a significant mine in western Canada. Hudbay Minerals is buying a 25 per cent interest in the Copper Mountain mine from Mitsubishi Materials, in a deal valued at about US$44.25 million. Copper Mountain is an open pit operation in southern British Columbia that also produces gold and silver as by-product metals. Hudbay CEO Peter Kukielski says consolidating ownership fits with a strategy of growing copper production in mining-friendly areas and will strengthen Hudbay's position as a "North American copper champion."

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2025-03-26

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Carney wants ‘serious’ talks with U.S.: Prime Minister Mark Carney says his top cabinet ministers are in contact with White House officials and want to have “serious” negotiations about trade. At a campaign stop yesterday in Halifax, Carney also said that export taxes on shipments remain an option for retaliation in an escalating Canada-U.S. trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he’ll announce import taxes on automobiles in the coming days — a move that would inflict damage on Canada’s manufacturing sector — but indicated some nations will receive breaks from next week’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs. His comments created further confusion about his plans for a sweeping tariff announcement scheduled for April 2.

Feds halt Tesla payments: Canada has halted payments for Tesla vehicles under federal incentives for the zero-emission vehicles program in order to fully examine each claim individually and determine whether all are eligible and valid. The pause follows reports that Tesla filed an unusually high number of claims — 8,600 vehicles worth $43 million in rebates — at four Canadian dealerships ahead of a deadline for the government rebate program. Tesla is also excluded from future incentive programs “so long as the illegitimate and illegal U.S. tariffs are imposed against Canada,” according to Transport Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Record Quebec deficit: The province of Quebec is forecasting a record $13.6 billion deficit for the next fiscal year, and is warning that the budget outlook depends on the duration and severity of the trade war with the U.S. As part of its budget presented late yesterday afternoon, the provincial government said Quebec’s economy is expected to grow at a 1.1 per cent pace this year and 1.4 per cent next year, but in a worst-case scenario, the tariff shock would cause a 0.1 per cent decrease in gross domestic product in 2025, followed by a slow recovery — just 0.5 per cent growth in 2026.

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2025-03-25

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: As the tariffs turn: Confusion remains over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement set for April 2. Yesterday Trump said he will announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals and automobile imports in the coming days and indicated that nations may receive breaks from next week's "reciprocal" tariffs. He also announced a 25 per cent tariff on other nations purchasing Venezuelan oil starting on April 2, as the U.S. attempts to use its economic clout as leverage to achieve its foreign and domestic policy goals.

LNG push: Liquified natural gas is in the spotlight today. British oil major Shell has announced plans to double down on its LNG push. Shell — the world’s largest liquified natural gas trader — says it will increase LNG sales by four to five per cent per year through 2030. ″We want to become the world’s leading integrated gas and LNG business and the most customer-focused energy marketer and trader,” CEO Wael Sawan said in a statement Tuesday. Meanwhile, Reuters is reporting a tanker is expected to arrive in Canada on April 1 to start cooling down LNG Canada’s plant in Kitimat, British Columbia, considered the final step before the plant begins production of the super-chilled gas. “The delivery is expected in early April and is critical to our safe start-up and commissioning process now underway, and to achieving our first cargo by the middle of 2025,” LNG Canada said. The company is Canada’s first liquefied natural gas export facility and when complete is expected to export 14 million metric tonnes per year.

[Investopedia, USA]: Reciprocal tariffs are set to be implemented next week, according to prior announcements from President Donald Trump. However, on Monday, the president said that not all countries would be subject to these import taxes.

"I may give a lot of countries breaks. It’s reciprocal, but we might be even nicer than that. You know, we’ve been very nice to a lot of countries for a long time,” Trump reportedly said at the White House.

This is different than what the president originally wrote on Truth Social when he announced the reciprocal tariffs in February.

Reciprocal tariffs on foreign goods would match those imposed on U.S. exports. For example, if items from the U.S. were taxed at a 5% rate when sent to the U.K., items from the U.K. would be taxed at 5% as they come into the U.S.

Trump's latest comments came hours after The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House is looking to limit the scope of the reciprocal tariffs based on sectors. Targeted levies on industrial sectors such as cars, microchips and pharmaceuticals would likely be left out, The Journal said.

The Wall Street Journal. "White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs."

The White House didn’t immediately return a request for comment. However, across different Monday events, Trump said tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, lumber, and semiconductors would be implemented soon in addition to reciprocal tariffs.

Trump's back-and-forth on tariff plans has created uncertainty across the economy. It has undermined confidence among business leaders and consumers, sent stocks tumbling, and raised fears of a possible economic downturn and job losses.

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2025-03-24

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: And they’re off: The next federal campaign is now underway, after Mark Carney visited Governor General Mary Simon to ask that she issue the writs of election. “We’ve done a lot in the nine days to put in place many of the foundations,” Carney said from outside Rideau Hall Sunday. “But what’s important is that the government has a mandate from the Canadian people to finish the job, to finish the job of building the Canadian economy, to finish the job of diversifying our trading partners, and to have a strong mandate to stand up to (U.S. President) Donald Trump and the Americans and negotiate the best deal for Canadians.” Canadians will head to the polls on April 28, making it a five-week campaign. While voters will weigh a number of issues, the primary deciding point seems to be which leader will best be able to address U.S. threats against Canada’s economy and sovereignty.

Tariff hope: Meanwhile, stock futures were indicating a positive opening for North American equity markets amid optimism that U.S. tariffs may be more targeted. There are indications that Trump’s announcement of universal, reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2 — a date he’s referred to as “liberation day” — will be narrower than initially expected. That’s helping temper some of the market’s fears about the impact on global trade and growth. Narrower tariffs may be good news for Canada specifically, but of course we will have to wait to see what is actually announced.

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2025-03-21

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: [BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Retail slowdown: There is a definite downtrend taking shape when it comes to consumer spending in Canada. Retail sales fell by 0.6 per cent in January and the “flash” estimate from Statistics Canada indicates sales fell by 0.4 per cent in February. It’s the first back-to-back decreases since mid-2023…and the numbers seem to indicate Canadian consumers are paring back their spending amid rising inflation and trade war uncertainty. Car dealers led the decrease in January, with food and beverage retailers as well as sporting goods stores also seeing declines.

Bank of Canada changing approach: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is signalling a shift in how the central bank sets interest rates. In a speech yesterday in Calgary, Macklem said the risk of higher inflation from a trade war limits the central bank’s ability to cut interest rates to boost growth and warned about the dangers of adjusting policy based on an uncertain outlook. Macklem said policymakers would be “less forward-looking than normal until the situation is clearer,” adding that the central bank could be forced to act more quickly “when things crystallize.” Macklem also acknowledged the Canadian economy may be hit with a recession, as the impact of the trade war with the U.S. begins to take hold.

Smith rejects tariffs on Alberta oil: Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she won’t accept an export tax or restriction of Alberta’s oil and gas to the United States. In an emailed statement to Bloomberg News, Smith said that during her meeting with Prime Minister Carney she rejected any constraints on oil and gas exports to the U.S. as part of Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs. Smith also presented Carney with a list of demands, including oil and gas corridors to the north, east, and west, the repeal of legislation that she says hinders pipeline development and the lifting of a tanker ban off British Columbia’s coast. Smith also demanded the ends of an oil and gas industry emissions cap, clean energy regulations, a federal prohibition on single-use plastics and a net-zero car mandate.

[Investopedia, USA]: President Donald Trump's campaign of imposing tariffs has raised fears among some forecasters that the economy is headed towards stagnant growth and high inflation, a phenomenon popularly referred to as "stagflation" that has occurred over an extended period since the 1970s.

If that happens, it would pose a dilemma for the Fed, which manages the nation's monetary policy with the dual mandate of keeping inflation under control and keeping unemployment low. The trouble for the Fed is that it can use its main tool, changing the all-important fed funds rate, to lower inflation or encourage employment, but not both at the same time.

When inflation is running too high, the Fed raises the fed funds rate, pushing up interest rates on all kinds of loans and slowing the economy, aiming to reduce spending and allow supply and demand to rebalance. The fed did this in 2022 to combat the post-pandemic surge of inflation.

When unemployment is high, the Fed can lower the fed funds rate, pushing down borrowing costs. Easy money tends to make business boom and employers hire more. The Fed chopped interest rates to near zero when the pandemic hit in 2020, reviving an economy that had suddenly plunged into a recession.

Source: https://www.investopedia.com/how-would-the-federal-reserve-fight-stagflation-11700516

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2025-03-20

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Election call imminent: CTV News is reporting Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to call a snap federal election on Sunday that would set the stage for a vote as soon as April 28. Sources say a final decision on whether election day will be April 28 or May 5 has yet to be decided, but will be made shortly. Carney was sworn in as prime minister on March 14 after winning the Liberal leadership race just days prior. Parliament was set to return this coming Monday after being prorogued for two months following former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement. The Liberal Party has jumped into a lead in some public opinion polls on the eve of an election, as voters respond to Trudeau’s exit and Carney’s rise to lead the government. Carney has taken a measured approach so far to threats from U.S. President Trump, including visiting Europe in an attempt to strengthen trade with overseas nations in light of U.S. tariff plans.

Fed rally fading: Stocks surged yesterday following some reassuring words from the chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the economic impact of U.S. President Trump’s tariff policies and said any resulting inflation bump could be transitory. However, futures are indicating enthusiasm is wearing off, as doubts grow that the Fed can significantly cut interest rates in the face of potentially inflationary trade tariffs. This morning the Bank of England also kept rates on hold, and indicated it may be less likely to cut anytime soon.

Small business sentiment plunges to 25-year low: Optimism among Canada’s small businesses has fallen to a 25-year low. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business says nearly 60 per cent of respondents to a new survey expect their business performance to be much weaker a year from now, with expectations for inflation over the next year also rising. Of course the drop comes after the U.S. started its trade war with Canada. Ottawa has pledged billions in aid to help exporters and announced loans to support businesses directly targeted by tariffs, as well as their supply chains.

Copper approaches record high: Shares of copper-mining companies may be on the move on the TSX today, as the price of copper approaches a record high. Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose to US$10,046.50 a ton this morning, while prices on New York’s Comex traded close to a record high. Last month U.S. President Trump ordered his Commerce Department to investigate the nation’s imports of copper as a likely precursor to imposing duties. Since then, prices have spiked and traders have rushed to send metal to America ahead of any tariffs, in turn reducing availability in the rest of the world.

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2025-03-19

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Fed day: The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest rates at 2:00 P.M. ET today. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, in a range between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent. However, the Fed is expected to adjust its view on the economy and possibly the future path for interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues in recent weeks have advocated a patient approach in which they don’t need to be in a hurry to do anything. They are also expected to drop clues about where things go from here against the uncertain backdrop of U.S. President Trump’s trade and fiscal policies. That could include anything from tweaks in projections for inflation and economic growth to how often, if at all, they expect to lower interest rates further. BNN Bloomberg will cover the announcement live, as well as Fed Chair Powell’s news conference at 2:30 P.M.

Evolving U.S. tariff plan: Speaking of tariffs, there is some new information on how the U.S. plans to implement its plan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the Trump administration will announce a tariff rate for each of its trading partners on April 2, then give the countries an opportunity to avoid the levy by lowering their own tariffs or addressing other American grievances. In an interview with Fox News, Bessent said “What’s going to happen on April 2, each country will receive a number that we believe represents their tariffs. So, for some countries, it could be quite low, for some countries it could be quite high.” He said that the number will include both tariffs countries put on U.S. goods, and other measures that the administration believes disadvantage U.S. companies. Speaking to Bloomberg News, Bessent also said “I wouldn’t expect any carve-outs” with regard to reciprocal tariffs.

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2025-03-18

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Inflation in the spotlight Inflation takes centre stage today. Canada’s consumer price index for the month of February rose at a 2.6 per cent annualized rate. Inflation picked up as the federal government’s temporary tax break on many popular household products came to an end. The rate is up from 1.9 per cent in January. Higher global food prices and average gasoline prices also boosted February’s headline inflation print.

Carney warns of “limit” on tariff response Prime Minister Mark Carney is warning “there is a limit” to Canada’s tariff response to the U.S. At a news conference in the U.K., Carney said “We are not going to take an action that we think is not ultimately going to influence the United States, and certainly not one that is outright harmful to Canada. … There’s a limit to matching these tariffs, dollar -for-dollar, given the fact that our economy is a tenth the size the United States.” The statement followed meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, followed by an audience with King Charles III and a meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Ultra-fast EV charging A Chinese automaker is shaking up the electric vehicle market. BYD has unveiled a line-up of vehicles based on a new battery and charging system that the company says is capable of providing around 400 kilometers of range in just five minutes of charging time. The company will start selling vehicles with the new technology next month. BYD already rivals Tesla as the world’s top EV seller – even in the face of prohibitive import tariffs in many countries, including Canada and the U.S.

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2025-03-17

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: OECD warns on Trump impact: A warning today on the outlook for the world’s economy. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies have set the world onto a path of slower growth and higher inflation. The Paris-based group of the world’s 38 largest economies cut its outlook for most members. It also predicted the pace of global expansion to slow to 3.1 per cent this year and three per cent in 2026 as barriers restrain commerce and rising uncertainty holds back business investment and consumer spending. The report says nations currently in the eye of the trade storm may see even sharper decelerations, with Canada’s growth rate tumbling to less than half the OECD’s December prediction, Mexico entering a recession, and the annual expansion in the U.S. wilting to 1.6 per cent next year — the weakest since 2011 aside from the initial pandemic hit suffered in 2020.

Carney in Europe: Amid the economic threats, new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has arrived in Europe, as he looks to strengthen overseas relationships in the wake of U.S. government hostility. Carney will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer today. The Prime Minister hopes to deepen and develop trading ties with two of Canada’s historic allies, including exploring alternative supply chain options. Carney is expected to hold a meeting with provincial premiers later this week, before calling a general election over the weekend.

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