2024-12-02
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This Lithium-ion battery has received a follow on order after a trial battery pack(s) by a global defense contractor as well as used by Raymond of Toyota for its forklifts. Those show their superior quality products.
Their batteries are long lasting with fire protection ceramic separators. The only issue could be high initial cost even though the ROI or cost of ownership is lower as compared to their competitors. Based on an estimate, their battery could last 3.5M miles or 30 years if used in electric vehicles. Noted by Stephen Tobin: Electrovaya's battery supports 14,000 cycles while the closet competitor is 6,000 cycles by BYD. Tesla battery only supports 1,500 cycles.
Yes, it is a premium battery pack. The only issue would be "coming up with a cheaper but still superior version of battery to reach mass production."
US-EXIM Bank has recently approved a $50.8M loan for Electrovaya to get the cell/battery pack manufacturing plant up and running by the first half of 2026 in Jamestown, New York in USA. This manufacturing plant would help Electrovaya with larger contracts or deals.
Their stock symbol is ELVA:US or ELVA:CA, Electrovaya with head quarter and a manufacturing plant in Canada.
See their latest presentation and information at https://lnkd.in/gXa2AjjW
Notes: Btw, I own ELVA stock.
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A good analysis about Electrovaya stock: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740005-electrovaya-stock-mispriced-potential-for-industry-leading-battery-technology
Its current price as of 2024-12-02: $3.71 CAD or $2.675 USD
Electrovaya Receives Purchase Orders ($4.1M USD) for Batteries From Fortune 500 Customer for Re-Powering Two Existing Distribution Centers
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/electrovaya-receives-purchase-orders-batteries-120000697.html
2024-12-13: About Electrovaya, ELVA:US or ELVA:CA
ReplyDeleteIn the latest conference call of Electrovaya, there was an interesting note.
“For those unable to participate in the conference call, a replay will be available for two weeks beginning on December 12, 2024 through December 26, 2024. To access the replay, the dial-in number is 877-481-4010 and 919-882-2331. The replay passcode is 51758.” – Source from Electrovaya.
It was about its solid-state battery (SSB) under development. The experiment SSB passed their internal criteria including cycle life around 500 cycles and fast charging time (?). They need to fine tuning to make thinner separator and consistent performance, I guess. Anyway, they will announce the results soon, if successful.
I am just wondering about the application for a 500-life cycle solid-state battery. Their Infinity Lithium-ion battery is more than 10,000 cycles. Raj (CEO) said that the SSB with 500 life cycle battery is commercial-able. A 500-cycle life SSB is less expensive and perhaps lighter. What application could it be used for? What is the typical life cycle of a lead acid battery?
Excerpts from Internet about typical lead acid battery
>>>>>
What is the average life cycle of a lead-acid battery?
Even if never drain your battery too much, the best lead-acid batteries last only 500 to 1000 cycles. If you are frequently tapping into your battery bank, your batteries may need replacement after less than 2 years use.
Charging time
A lead-acid battery takes about 8 hours to fully charge, and then needs to cool for another 8 hours. This means that a single lead-acid battery can only power a forklift for one shift.
<<<<<
In order to compete with lead acid battery, it would come down to cost, maintenance, operations and charging time for an SSB. Perhaps there are also other applications such as gasoline car batteries, laptop battery, phone battery, etc.? Licencing?
Their revenue forecast is conservative this time, thus 2025 revenue would be at least $60M or 50% higher than 2024. Anyway, I am expecting billions of dollars in revenues. its market cap is currently under $100M USD. When will it reach $500M and then $1B market cap?
See their latest presentation and information at https://electrovaya.com/investors/
A good analysis about Electrovaya stock: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4740005-electrovaya-stock-mispriced-potential-for-industry-leading-battery-technology
Its current price as of 2024-12-12: $3.98 CAD or $2.85 USD
An interview of CEO for Canadian manufacturing:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/qa-dr-raj-das-gupta-on-electrovayas-exim-loan-what-it-means-for-cdn-mfg-and-whats-next/
prosserp's post @ agoracom 2024-12-13:
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There are lots of 500 cycle applications. One is EV's which require 400 cycles or more. That fits. Then there are consumer electronic devices that are Cost, cycle life and weight sensitive. Then there are military communication devices with the same cost, cycle life and weight considerations. Increased safety comes with all SS cells ? There is not the fire hazard as with conventional cells. Electrovaya should have a cost advantage using their own patented manufacturing process which is a lower cost process.
Right now though I would like to see the UL certification come thru for the new LFP cell and module. I believe this will lead to a large increase of customer orders from new customers. This could provide increased 2026 revenue.
Infinity-LIB-Tech's post @ Yahoo Finance 2024-12-13:
ReplyDeleteSSB applications are high performance automotive (supercars), aerospace/defense (drones), consumer products, etc... Lead acid has around ~1200/1500 cycle life if maintained well.
Electrovaya's earning call transcript for Q4 and full year 2024. Their fiscal year ended in September of each calendar year.
ReplyDeletehttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4744009-electrovaya-inc-elva-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript
UL2580 Recognition for Electrovaya’s Lithium Iron Phosphate Infinity Cell:
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ul2580-recognition-electrovaya-lithium-iron-120000642.html
UL2580 recognition for LFP battery, it is a good sign. Now we can expect unexpected big contracts coming in as its safety certification and lower cost LFP as compared to NMC.
ReplyDeleteCloudmon is right about accumulating more shares while others dumped it.
It current market cap is $85.68M USD at $2.50 USD/share or $3.57 CAD/share, which is very low for all of its accomplishment so far.
Electrovaya has earned good fire protection records from its NMC Infinity battery. Therefore, those safety records would help to market LFP battery, if same ceramic separators used in it in addition to UL recognition.
ReplyDeleteIf you bid shares now or earlier in the morning, you could buy shares at the same price as equity offerings. If you bought shares yesterday, you may get price lower than $2.15 USD.
ReplyDeleteELVA don't have cash if you looked at their financial statements. EXIM requires cash collateral, i.e. not the money that they loaned to ELVA.
I think, ELVA would need cash for bigger deals or pay existing loans at high interests, thus they use this occasion to raise extra cash to pay for existing loans. It is not an ideal time to raise cash via equity to me due to "artificial" low share price. Anyways I have accumulated some more shares in this event via a public stock exchange.
Seize this opportunity, if you're interested in ELVA shares.
---- From Cloudmon @ Yahoo Finance --------
All this hyperventilating and posts from the armchair CEOs - I would not be surprised to hear that several fainting couches were broken this morning. However, one would have to be naive to think there would be no cost to replacing the current debt facility with a new one and this move seems to be imminent. Additionally, it should come as no surprise to hear that there are costs to setting up the ExIm loan. Agoracom posts indicate that this was a savvy move, barely dilutive. I agree with that assessment.
Given how John Gibson has been focused on the company moving onto stronger ground financially leading to the "going concern" language being dropped, you should be assessing what the company is getting in return for selling a relative small number of shares: (1) the ExIm loan will likely close within the next month, (2) the debt facility will soon be replaced with one on more advantageous terms to the company, and (3) Jamestown facility will soon be contributing to fulfilling sales orders. The cost of doing this business is that the total number of outstanding shares will increase from about 34 million to under 40 million shares. Take a deep breath here and think about what is going on.
I bought a bit more and will continue to do so - I have a longer term view than the armchair analysts.
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/electrovaya-nasdaqelva-given-buy-rating-at-hc-wainwright-2025-02-14/
ReplyDeletePE ratios and price estimates from agoracom
ReplyDeletePosted On: Feb 20, 2025 11:32PM
It is good to see more companies developing earnings estimates for ELVA. Here is the lates from Seaport
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/q2-eps-estimates-for-electrovaya-lifted-by-seaport-res-ptn-2025-02-19/
They estimate that 2026 will have EPS in the range of 48 cents. At the current stock price that represents a PE ratio of ~5.2. It's hard to compare ELVA with other battery makers because none of them are making a profit.
The average PE ratio for the Nasdaq 100 is ~28. If ELVA brings in 48 cents profit and matches the Nasdaq 100 PE ratio of 28 the share price would be ~$13.5. Imagine a more lofty PE like 40 and we're close to $20/share. That would not be a bad return from the current share price.
Posted On: Mar 18, 2025 07:38PM by purabida on arogacom
ReplyDeleteAn interesting article came out in the Toronto Globe and Mail titled: Canada rejected battery maker Electrovaya for a loan so it opened a factory in the U.S. Did Ottawa unwittingly do it a big favour?It's behind a paywall:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-rejected-battery-maker-electrovaya-for-a-loan-so-it-opened-a/
Let's do a bit of work with those price targets again:
ReplyDeleteStephen Tobin: $9.70 USD
Raymond James: $4.50 USD with "strong buy"
Yahoo: $5.83 USD
H.C. Wainwright: $10 USD with "buy"
Refinitiv Rating: $5.74 USD with 4 "buy"
TipRanks Ratings: $6.50 with "strong buy"
I think, Stephen Tobin forecast explosive returns or revenues for ELVA in 2026, thus investors should buy shares in 2025.
The average for those targets should be $7.045 USD.
Based on the current price of $2.824, the share price would go up +150%.
Main paragraphs from the latest article by Steve Tobin
ReplyDeleteSummary
Electrovaya is poised for a multi-year revenue growth cycle, with a price target of $9.70, suggesting a 280% upside from today's price of $2.50.
The company's technical advantage and proprietary ceramic separator create a strong competitive moat, leading to industry-leading cycle life and premium pricing.
Expansion into new vertical markets and a US-based manufacturing facility will drive growth, supported by a crucial loan agreement and strategic partnerships.
Electrovaya's improved balance sheet and strong financial position, coupled with high-margin premium products, make it a compelling investment opportunity.
I believe Electrovaya (http://ELVA) is at the beginning of a multi-year revenue growth cycle that will significantly increase its share price. I have set a price target of $9.70, suggesting a 280% upside from today's price of $2.50.
Electrovaya's substantial technical advantage creates a moat around its business and gives it a significant and sustainable competitive advantage.
The company has just secured a crucial loan agreement that will allow it to expand its capacity and build a US-based manufacturing facility, avoiding tariffs and ensuring the products sold to its major US OEM customers, accounting for 98% of its revenue, are entirely made in America.
Electrovaya is expanding its vertical markets through its ongoing agreement with the Japanese trading house Sumitomo and has now signed agreements with two Japanese construction equipment OEMs. The first deliveries under these contracts will take place this quarter.
Multiple other vertical markets and OEM customers are moving to Electrovaya, many having tried and rejected the batteries from different suppliers, to take advantage of Electrovaya's industry-leading cycle life product.
Due Diligence: Before writing this article, I met with the CEO of Electrovaya, Raj DasGupta, and the head of investor relations, Jason Roy. I discussed all the key points raised in this article, and their input was invaluable to my work. It is the third meeting I have had with management, and I have been covering Electrovaya since May 2022, writing about the company 4 times previously. I am long ELVA, and it is one of my largest holdings.
Conclusion
Electrovaya seems to be at an inflection point, it is about to begin producing batteries in the US, it is starting shipments to Japan. Its largest end users have started re-powering existing facilities with Electrovaya batteries, and several new vertical markets are expected to come online in the next 12 months.
The company's batteries have maintained their technical advantage in the three years I have been covering them and, so far, no manufacturer has suggested a cycle life close to the 14,000 Electrovaya has achieved.
The balance sheet has gone from basket case to case study and the company is well funded with Tier 1 banks offering it finance.
To quote my father, one of the best stock pickers I have ever known: "This train is leaving the station, all aboard!"