September 1-15, 2025

2025-09-12

[Investopedia, USA]:  Inflation continued to crunch household budgets in August as tariffs pushed consumer prices.

Prices as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% over 12 months ending in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday.1 Inflation was up from a 2.7% annual increase in July and reached the highest since January,

"Core" inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, rose 3.1%, the same annual increase as in July. According to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, both increases were in line with forecasters' expectations.

Inflation has steadily risen this year as merchants have passed on the costs of President Donald Trump's sweeping import taxes. The impact has been slow to arrive as businesses had stocked up on inventory in advance of the tariff campaign, but those stockpiles are running out.

"With buffer inventories that had been built ahead of tariffs being depleted, businesses are now forced to replenish stock at elevated prices," Katy Stoves, investment manager at Mattioli Woods, wrote in a commentary. "With the tariffs looking to be more permanent, companies now have cover to pass these rising costs onto consumers, rather than compressing margins."

Grocery Inflation Highest In Three Years

Grocery prices rose 0.6% between July and August, the biggest monthly increase since August 2022, and are up 2.7% over the year, the biggest annual increase since August 2023.3 Gasoline prices rose 1.9% in August, almost reversing the 2.2% drop from the prior month.

Prices for used cars rose 1% over the month, while apparel prices rose 0.5%, pushing up core inflation.

Prices for goods other than food and energy rose 0.3% from July, the most since January and underscoring the impact of tariffs: in the pre-pandemic era, core goods prices often fell because of cheap imports, helping keep overall inflation in check, but have risen for the last three months in a row.

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2025-09-11

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: Carney to announce 'nation-building projects': Prime Minister Mark Carney is speaking in Edmonton today, where he will be making an announcement about “nation-building projects that will connect and transform the Canadian economy.” CTV News is reporting that one of these projects will include a liquified natural gas (LNG) expansion project that will double Canada's production. Other potential projects that may be on the list include mines, ports, nuclear projects and high-speed rail.

U.S. inflation accelerates: Inflation in the United States accelerated in August at a 2.9 per cent annual rate — a faster pace than in June and July. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4 per cent — a bit hotter than expectations. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy and is viewed as a steadier gauge of underlying pressures, rose 3.1 per cent from a year earlier, matching economists' projections as well as July's annual pace.

[Investopedia, USA]: There's a massive disconnect between different indicators of the health of the economy: employment and inflation measures are waving red flags, while financial markets are surging, seeing nothing but green.

Indeed, stock markets and economic indicators have been breaking records for entirely different reasons. The popular S&P 500 stock index hit yet another record high this week, the same day the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut its job growth estimates for last year in half, the largest downward revision in the statistical agency's history.

The S&P 500 has grown more than 11% so far this year. Meanwhile, key economic data points to slowing job growth and stubborn inflation, as many businesses and consumers worry about President Donald Trump's tariffs hitting their bottom lines.

Here are four potential reasons stocks have shrugged off news of disappearing jobs and rising consumer prices:

Bad News Can Be Good News

On the one hand, the dismal job growth is a bad sign for the health of the economy, but for investors, it has a few upsides.

One is that a stalling job market will likely encourage officials at the Federal Reserve to cut the central bank's benchmark interest rate despite inflation running above the Fed's target of a 2% annual rate. Lower interest rates mean cheaper borrowing costs and easier money throughout the economy, and are usually good for stock prices.

Another is that some of the poor job growth could be due to companies using AI instead of hiring workers. If that's true, it would mean the massive investments in AI technology are starting to pay off—bad news for job seekers, but good for shareholders of AI chip makers and other tech companies.

The Dollar Is Weak

In another case of bad news arguably being good news, the value of the U.S. dollar is down roughly 10% since January, when compared to the currencies of other major economies.

1 To some economists, the falling dollar is a sign that currency traders are losing confidence in the U.S. economy as a whole and see it as riskier than they did before Trump's tariffs went into effect.

Yet, economists at Goldman Sachs, led by Ronnie Walker, said in a research note that the weak dollar has helped corporate earnings among companies listed on the S&P 500.

 A weaker dollar helps exporters, whose products become cheaper compared to their competition.

"Companies in the S&P 500 have greater international sales exposure and benefited from dollar depreciation," Walker wrote.

Major Companies Are Coping With Tariffs

According to the Goldman analysis, companies have stopped discussing "uncertainty" about tariffs affecting their businesses in corporate earnings statements and are moving ahead with strategies to deal with the new import taxes.

"Among companies that discussed mitigation strategies, about three-fourths said they were negotiating with suppliers or adjusting their supply chain, slightly more than half said they were passing through costs to customers, and slightly less than half said they were looking for cost savings elsewhere," Walker wrote.

Record High Stocks Are Business As Usual

The stock market's value tends to rise over time, other than in times of severe economic crisis. This means it's at or near record highs more often than not. Between the end of the Great Recession (2013) and the end of the Covid-related downturn (2021), the S&P 500 closed at a record high on 15% of trading days, according to an analysis by MAI Capital Management.

The Stock Market Is Not The Economy

As many experts have noted over the years, the stock market is not the economy. Measures of "the economy" are intended to gauge the standards of living and well-being of the entire population, whereas the S&P 500 tracks the value of 500 of the country's 33 million businesses. They can and often do move in different directions.

"It’s essential to remember that the economy and the stock market are not the same thing," Tiffany Wilding, an economist at PIMCO, wrote in a commentary last month.

"That distinction is especially important today, as current policies appear to be widening the gap between the two."

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2025-09-10

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: 'Made in Canada' solution: The global mining industry continues to assess the implications of the blockbuster $70 billion merger plan announced by Teck Resources and Anglo American. There is rampant speculation about another possible bidder for Teck, as well as a possible takeover offer for Anglo, which would likely stymie the deal. The merger plan is also sparking speculation on whether there could be a ‘Made in Canada’ solution. Analysts at brokerage house Stifel say they see potential for a Canadian solution involving Teck to create a larger Canadian mining champion headquartered and incorporated in Canada. Stifel says that although it has no knowledge of any M&A discussions, it mentions potential Canadian-incorporated suitors Agnico Eagle and Barrick. We will discuss all of this and more today on BNN Bloomberg when we speak with Jonathan Price, president and CEO of Teck, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.

Canadian auto sector boost: There is some good news for Canada’s auto sector. General Motors is pausing plans to eliminate a shift at its pickup-truck assembly plant in Oshawa, Ont., offering a temporary reprieve for hundreds of workers affected by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. GM will keep three shifts at the factory until at least Jan. 30, according to Unifor, which represents workers at the plant. Meanwhile, Stellantis has confirmed it will add a third shift at its Windsor, Ont., assembly plant in the first quarter of 2026.

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2025-09-09

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: Teck Resources takeover by Anglo American: Shares of Teck Resources surged in the premarket after the Canadian company agreed to be taken over by U.K. miner Anglo American. The combined firm would have a market value of more than US$53 billion, making it one of the leaders in the copper industry. Teck's controlling shareholder is backing the all-stock deal. If the deal goes ahead, Anglo shareholders will own more than 62 per cent of the combined company, and its operational headquarters will be in Vancouver. A key rationale for the deal is the expected cost-savings at Teck’s huge Chile copper mine, Quebrada Blanca, which has experienced cost overruns and operational difficulties. Anglo American owns 44 per cent of the nearby Collahuasi mine and plans to combine the two mines’ operations. Federal Industry Minister Melanie Joly says the proposed merger would trigger reviews to ensure it aligns with Canada's economic and security priorities.

Quebec boosts aluminum exports: Aluminum producers in Quebec are sending more of their product to Europe as tariffs are making shipments to the U.S. more expensive. Aluminum exports to the U.S. from Quebec fell from 95 per cent in the first quarter to 78 per cent in the second. Conversely, exports to Europe went from 0.2 per cent to 18 per cent in the same period.

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2025-09-02

[Investopedia, USA]: Fresh data about U.S. home values is the latest sign that the market is dimming for sellers.

The problem: The growth rate of home prices isn't keeping up with inflation, which might indicate a cooling market. In some areas prices are actually falling. At the same time, housing inventory is climbing, giving buyers more options to choose from than they've had in a while.

Nationwide home prices in June were up 1.9% year over year, according to the most recent S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index. That's the slowest growth rate since the summer of 2023.

 Prices grew much more slowly than the 2.7% rate of inflation recorded in that same period, effectively putting the brakes on the pandemic-era housing boom.

"For the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation," said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed-income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market's new equilibrium."

Reversing Pandemic-Era Trends

This shift comes after a yearslong runup in home values. The growth rate for home prices hit its peak of 20.7%. year-over-year, in March 2020.

“The market's health is supported by a cumulative 49% home price appreciation for a typical American homeowner from pre-COVID July 2019 to July this year," said National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Overall, homeowners are doing well financially.”

Still, data from July also indicates the market is softening. In July, existing home sales prices grew by a meager 0.2% year-over-year—far less than the inflation rate. The average price of a new home in July fell by 5.9%.

Meanwhile, mortgage rates remain elevated at 6.7%, posing another challenge for buyers and sellers alike.

Shifts In Supply And Demand

Housing markets are local, so home values and sales trends depend on where you live. During the pandemic, homebuilding boomed in regions like the South and West, but now a oversupply in those areas is driving price drops. Tampa home values fell by 2.4% and San Francisco prices were down 2% year-over-year, the index showed.

At the same time, price appreciation in Northeast and Midwest locations are well over inflation rates. Prices in New York City were higher by 7% in July, and up 6% in Chicago, according to Case-Shiller.