2025-12-30
[Bnn Bloomberg]: Mike Philbrick's Top Picks: Vanguard Canadian Government Bond Index ETF, iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF, Invesco Solar ETF
MARKET OUTLOOK:
2026: Rebalance the winners — Add ballast with bonds and trend
A useful year-end discipline is remembering that what gave you an edge in 2025 can imprison you in 2026. This bull run has made it easy to drift into “house money” behaviour: too much tech/AI because it worked, too much risk because dips kept getting bought.
So step one into 2026 is simple: rebalance back to target risk. Index exposure isn’t as diversified as it looks when a handful of mega-caps dominate returns. If you’ve had big gains in tech, trim to plan. Same with scarce assets: if you’ve followed my gold and silver views and they’ve run, review sizing and harvest some gains.
For investors not yet in scarce assets, the approach is walk–crawl–run. They deserve a place in portfolios, but don’t chase—start small, build over time, and size it so you can live with the volatility.
The bigger change for 2026 is macro: we’re entering a year where policy, inflation expectations, and growth may not move in the clean way investors got used to. If disinflation outpaces rate cuts, real rates can rise even as the Fed eases—an environment where “Fed cuts = stocks up” may not always hold.
That’s also why bonds can play a bigger role again as ballast, and why trend-following managed futures may be especially useful. Trend strategies tend to do their best work when markets stop being smooth and start producing persistent moves across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities—exactly the kind of multi-regime, higher-volatility setup 2026 could deliver.
Bottom line: rebalance winners, broaden beyond crowded trades, and consider adding diversifiers—bonds and trend—that can help when the market’s leadership, rates, and volatility shift.
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2025-12-23
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry
Cain - Canada]: The Canadian economy shrank by a greater-than-expected 0.3
per cent in October, the largest drop in almost three years, on weakness in
both the goods and services sectors
Copper chases record highs: Copper hit a fresh all-time high
above US$12,000 a ton as severe mine outages and trade dislocations linked to
US.. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda put the crucial industrial metal on
course for its biggest annual gain since 2009. Prices rose as much as 0.9 per
cent to $12,031.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, extending a rally that
has lifted prices by about 37 per cent this year. The impact on global trade
flows has been so extreme that prices have rallied even though underlying usage
has deteriorated rapidly in China, which consumes about half the world’s
copper. Investors often view copper as a barometer for global industrial
activity, but the slowdown in China has done little to put the brakes on the
rally.
Federal interim
budget officer apologizes: Jason Jacques says he learned a lot about the
importance of choosing his words carefully in his first few months as the
interim parliamentary budget officer. Tapped over the Labour Day long weekend
to step into the role for a six-month term, Jacques quickly made waves among
parliamentarians and the media with his blunt assessment of Ottawa’s fiscal
management. After Jacques released a fiscal forecast in September, he told MPs
on a parliamentary committee that the current state of federal finances was
“unsustainable,” “shocking” and “stupefying.” But in a year-end interview with
The Canadian Press earlier this month, Jacques said he would not have used
those words if he could rewind the past three months. “It was totally
unnecessary,” he said. “People make mistakes. And again, for myself, it was a
learning opportunity.”
Booze may cost more
in 2026: Some alcohol prices in Ontario could rise in the new year, with
several changes to the alcohol marketplace set to take effect. The changes flow
from Premier Doug Ford’s plans to expand and modernize how alcohol is sold in
the province, which has seen beer, wine and coolers now sold in convenience
stores, a sharply reduced footprint for The Beer Store and a shifting system for
empties. When the expansion was announced last year, the government said all
retailers would have a 10 per cent wholesale discount from the LCBO until an
overall new wholesale pricing structure is rolled out in 2026. This spring, the
government temporarily increased that discount to 15 per cent for bars,
restaurants and convenience stores, citing the need to protect them from
impacts of U.S. tariffs. That is set to end Dec. 31, and some of those
businesses say it may mean they have to pass their price increase on to their
customers.
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2025-12-22
[Bnn Bloomberg, Canada]: Lyle Stein's Top Picks: Agnico Eagle, Sienna Senior Living, Alphabet
Forecast the economy through markets, not economic releases. It’s becoming harder to predict the economy directly. Market rollover (debt or equity) will presage next recession.
The “K‑shaped” economy. In the past, we described downturns and subsequent recoveries as ”U‑shaped” or “V‑shaped”. Today, the picture is more polarized. For those with steady jobs, homes, and investments, the trajectory is upward. But for those without assets or stable employment, the experience is very different—downward pressure continues. On average, the economy muddles through, but it’s really a story of diverging extremes. Restless people vote.
The distortions of the AI economy. Roughly half of U.S. growth is being driven by AI‑related capital spending—chips, data centres, and the like. Gains in AI stocks have also fueled consumer spending among those on the “up‑leg” of the K. Meanwhile, those on the “down‑leg” worry about the impact of AI on their jobs. The takeaway: follow the flow of AI investment, and you’ll have a good sense of where both markets and the economy are headed.
Pick a 3–5-year theme and invest accordingly. We are not going to out-trade a hedge-fund or Wall Street broker with extremely short-term biases.
Given these dynamics, we’re cautious heading into 2026. Long-term Interest rates are stuck and earnings growth, while robust mid-teens, may have been paid for.
Themes: Natural Gas Transition (on this for 3+ years), Aging (health shares relatively cheap), Uncertainty (Gold), Be liquid.
[Bnn Bloomberg]: CUSMA elimination would be devastating: U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign appeared to move at a breakneck pace towards Canada’s economy this year. Experts who spoke to The Canadian Press warned the saving grace for the economy of CUSMA compliant exemptions is at risk in 2026 as North American trade officials prepare for a review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement, or CUSMA. “It would be a worst-case scenario of the (CUSMA) deal basically being eliminated or not renewed,“ said Tony Stillo, director of Canada economics at Oxford Economics. Ninety per cent of goods going to the U.S. qualify, but if the CUSMA exemption were to end, Stillo said Canada’s economy would face “longer-term scarring. The size of the economy would be lower for several years, probably permanently,” he said.
Concerns over Canadian-owned Nuclear giant: The U.S. government sees the Canadian-owned Westinghouse nuclear company as a tool of American influence, federal officials have warned Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson. “The U.S. government continues to actively promote the adoption of Westinghouse technology abroad, including in Canada, and considers Westinghouse a key U.S. strategic asset regardless of its ownership structure,” said a briefing note prepared for Hodgson last summer. The Logic obtained a copy through an access-to-information request. “This is our ‘Buy Where We Build’ philosophy in action, ensuring that Canadians benefit directly from AP1000 plants built in Canada,” Westinghouse said in a statement to The Logic relayed through spokesperson Oliveah Numan. Without ever saying outright, Hodgson’s department sounded skeptical in a response to that. “Despite Canadian ownership, the company’s supply chain, technical knowledge and capabilities for its reactors remain largely based in the U.S., and export of the technology still requires U.S. approval,” the note said, with the bolding in the original.
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2025-12-19
[Bnn Bloomberg]: U.S. tariff relief “unlikely”: PM: Prime Minister Mark Carney says if U.S. President Donald Trump wanted to sit down as soon as this weekend to “hammer out” sectoral deals to ease tariffs hitting certain industries, Canada is “ready,” while conceding the chances of short-term relief for steel, aluminum and lumber sectors is unlikely. At a news conference Thursday, Carney said that, given trade talks remain terminated, the federal government anticipates those negotiations will roll in to the broader Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review process kicking off in 2026. “We’re less likely, we’re unlikely, given the time horizons coming together, to have a sectoral agreement,” Carney said “Although, if the United States wants to come back on that in those areas, we’re always ready.”
Retail sales down: Retail sales in Canada fell for a second straight month in October, led by a drop in the food and drink segment. Sales declined 0.2 per cent from the previous month. However, there are already signs of a turnaround. StatCan’s advance estimate for November indicates a surge of 1.2 per cent, which would be the biggest gain in five months.
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2025-12-18
[Bnn Bloomberg]: are five things you need to know this morning
U.S. signals changes for CUSMA: U.S. trade officials are signalling that Canada will need to make policy changes if it wants long-term certainty under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), as the trade deal comes up for mandatory review next year. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told members of U.S. Congress Thursday that, while the trade deal has delivered benefits for American exporters, Washington is not prepared to automatically extend it for another 16 years without addressing “specific and structural issues.” “(CUSMA) has been successful to a certain degree,” he said, according to a document shared after Greer’s closed-door meeting, adding the gains do not outweigh what he described as “structural shortcomings.” The United States is calling on Canada to expand access to its dairy market and address concerns about exports of certain industry products.
More pressure for Lululemon: Shares of Lululemon traded higher in the premarket, after reports that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built a stake of more than US$1 billion in the clothing retailer. Lulu is currently facing a strategic overhaul and is searching for a replacement for its current CEO, who will step down in January. According to Bloomberg, Elliott has been working with a former Ralph Lauren executive who is viewed as a potential CEO candidate.
Transat tops expectations: Transat posted revenue in its latest quarter that topped estimates, as well as profit that beat expectations. The Montreal-based airline says for fiscal 2026, it expects a capacity increase of up to eight per cent compared to 2025. Transat says despite certain impacts during the quarter, it still delivered earnings growth for the year. Transat recently reached a labour agreement with its pilots … and is facing a board challenge from investor Pierre Karl Peladeau.
U.S. inflation cools: U.S. inflation cooled in November, giving investors hope that inflationary pressures may be cooling enough for the U.S. Fed to keep cutting interest rates. The consumer price index rose at a 2.7 per cent annualized rate last month, a delayed report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. The October report was cancelled – in September CPI rose at a three per cent rate.
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2025-12-17
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: Watching Carney: We are watching
Ottawa for two expected events today. The Canadian Press is reporting the
federal government and Ontario are set to sign a deal that will reduce the
regulatory burden on large projects, including the road to the Ring of Fire
area in Northern Ontario. The report says Ottawa has committed to completing
its impact assessment on the same timeline as the province’s environmental
assessment, as two First Nations groups say they are set to begin building the
roads in 2026. Meanwhile, CTV News has confirmed PM Mark Carney will host a
virtual First Ministers Meeting today. Recently these meetings have been held
to update the Premiers on trade talks between Canada and the U.S. The last
meeting was Nov. 17.
Trump’s Venezuela blockade: Oil and gold traded higher this morning as
U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers going
into and leaving Venezuela. The move severely targets the country’s economy but
will have a less profound impact on global markets due to the diminished status
of its oil industry. The OPEC member’s crude output could potentially rebound
if the governing regime were to change. The Maduro government has characterized
the U.S. actions as a grab for Venezuela’s oil reserves, the biggest in the
world.
Transalta ordered to operate power plant: A Canadian company has come
into the crosshairs of the Trump administration. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris
Wright has issued an emergency order directing TransAlta to keep Unit 2 of the
Centralia Generating Station in Centralia, Washington available to operate.
Unit 2 of the coal plant was scheduled to shut down at the end of 2025. The
energy department says reliable supply of power from the Centralia coal plant
is essential for grid stability in the U.S. Northwest.
Scotia to revive metals trading desk: Bank of Nova Scotia is planning to
revive the metals trading desk it dismantled at the peak of the pandemic. The
new desk will trade, lend and hedge raw materials including precious and base
metals. The bank has hired recruiters to reach out to commodities traders,
sales specialists and strategists to staff the unit. The move follows
record-breaking rallies in gold, copper and silver that have renewed interest
in metals trade.
[Investopedia,
USA]: More Homebuyers Are Using the
Mortgage Option That Set Off the 2008 Housing Crisis
·
Approximately 10% of borrowers in
September took out an adjustable-rate mortgage to purchase a home.
·
Adjustable-rate mortgages contributed
significantly to the 2008 housing crisis, as many borrowers with poor credit
struggled to make payments when their rates increased.
·
However, mortgage experts said lending
standards have improved since then, reducing the likelihood of widespread
impacts on the housing market.
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2025-12-16
[Investopedia,
USA]: Job Growth Slumps as Unemployment
Hits Highest Level Since 2021
·
The U.S. economy lost 105,000 jobs in
October and added 64,000 in November.
·
The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in
November, higher than the 4.5% expected.
·
The report, which was delayed by the
government shutdown, showed that the job market's recent slump was deepening.
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