2025-10-15
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry
Cain - Canada]: U.S. stock futures point high: The S&P 500 was set to open
just short of its record high close on Wednesday of last week, boosted by
strong earnings. Bank of America rose four per cent in the pre-market after
posting a solid beat on profit. Morgan Stanley also topped estimates.
BCE upgraded to Buy
at TD, RBC: The telecom provider “is not a top pick, but we believe it has a
better growth and balance-sheet trajectory than we have seen for a few years,”
TD said. “So, with the recent weakness in the stock, we are upgrading.” At
10:30 a.m. ET, we’ll hear from Desjardins analyst Jerome Dubreuil, who also
calls the stock a Buy.
Nuclear energy,
uranium stocks moved higher: They surged Tuesday amid optimism that the U.S. is
determined to support the power source and build domestic capacity. The Wall
Street Journal says America’s military is working on a plan to put small
reactors on Army bases where strained power grids can’t match rising demand.
Another blow for
Canadian auto manufacturing: Stellantis intends to move production of its Jeep
Compass to Illinois, after previously pausing production at its Brampton, Ont.,
plant in February because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Ontario
Premier Doug Ford said “I have spoken with Stellantis to stress my
disappointment with today’s decision to prioritize investment into the U.S.
[Investopedia,
USA]: Officials at the Federal Reserve
are divided about how to set the central bank's key interest rate in the coming
months, and may not get the data they need to settle their differences anytime
soon.
As evidenced in
recent speeches and the minutes of their September meeting, a split is emerging
between members of the Federal Open Market Committee. One group is more
concerned about the deteriorating labor market and thinks the Fed should lower
its benchmark interest rate significantly to stave off job losses. The other
group sees inflation as the greater threat, and advocates for a more cautious
approach to rate cuts.
Investors broadly expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its next two meetings. However, the path after that is murkier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.
--------------------------------------------------
2025-10-14
[Investopedia,
USA]: China subsequently imposed
sanctions on U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilding firm Hanwha Ocean,
and Beijing and Washington began charging additional port fees on each others’
ships. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer later said on CNBC that Trump
and Chinese leader Xi Jinping still were slated to meet at an undisclosed date.
However, less than 30
minutes before markets closed, Trump wrote on Truth Social that "I believe
that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our
Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating
business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade,
as retribution."
Investors also were
interpreting a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell early Tuesday afternoon
at a National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia.
Powell said data show the job market deteriorating, suggesting he and other Fed
officials would be willing to cut the central bank's key interest rate in the
coming months to boost the job market.
Gold futures were
0.6% higher at $4,155 an ounce at 4 p.m. ET after setting a record high of
$4,190 earlier Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell 1.7% to
$58.45 a barrel. Bitcoin was at roughly $112,800 after trading near $116,000
late Monday afternoon.
The 10-year Treasury
yield ticked lower to 4.02% after the bond market was closed Monday for the
Columbus Day holiday. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback
against a basket of foreign currencies, was down 0.2% to 99.03.
In corporate news,
banking giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and
Wells Fargo (WFC) kicked off Q3 earnings season before the bell, and all topped
analysts' estimates. JPMorgan stock ended down 1.9% after CEO Jamie Dimon
warned "of uncertainty stemming from complex geopolitical conditions,
tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky
inflation." Shares of Wells Fargo closed up 7.2% to lead the S&P 500,
while those of Citi and Goldman Sachs were up 3.9% and down 2%, respectively.
If the latest
skirmish of words between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping
devolves into a full-scale trade war, the U.S. could take an economic hit on
par with the onset of COVID-19.
That's according to
an analysis Tuesday by Oxford Economics, which underlined the extremely high
stakes of the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Late last week,
Chinese officials said they were imposing new restrictions on exports of rare
earth minerals crucial for the high-tech industry. Trump retaliated Friday by
threatening to impose "massive" tariffs on China, but softened that
threat over the weekend, saying "it will all be fine."1
The threats of
tariffs and rare earth restrictions were both set to take effect in November
and may ultimately prove to be nothing more than bargaining ploys. Each side is
trying to gain an advantage ahead of an expected meeting between Trump and Xi
later this month in South Korea, several experts said.
However, there is
still a chance the trade dispute could heat up and seriously hurt the economy
at a time when job growth is already slowing, and inflation is on the rise.
"Each side is
brandishing leverage but preserving a narrow window for compromise," Matt
Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, wrote in a commentary.
"Ultimately, the rare-earth move and tariff threat are less about trade
than power. Both sides want to show they can’t be coerced. But posturing can
harden into policy."
China has already
flexed that leverage this year in response to Trump's imposition of
triple-digit tariffs on China in April. The two sides settled into a temporary
truce in May, with the U.S. lowering its tariffs and China lifting restrictions
on rare earth materials. The latest back-and-forth threats undermine that
truce.
What This Means For
The Economy
If negotiations
between the U.S. and China go wrong, China could cut U.S. industries off from
crucial supplies, decimating the economy and stoking inflation. The ensuing
slowdown in economic growth, combined with higher prices, would be financially
painful for U.S. households.
Covid-Like Shock
China dominates the
market for refined rare earth metals, which are used in weapons, cars,
electronics, and other high-tech products. By cutting off the U.S. from those
crucial resources, China could seriously damage the U.S. economy, Louise Loo,
head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, wrote in an analysis Tuesday.
"If implemented
in full, the controls announced by China last week would have a punishing
impact on downstream industries globally by delaying production processes,
potentially leading to supply chain chokepoints," Loo wrote.
The disruption would
ripple through the economy and cause "a shock akin to the early-2020s
supply snarls," Loo wrote. Growth in the Gross Domestic Product would slow
by an entire percentage point, and wholesale inflation would surge to
double-digit levels, similar to the aftermath of the pandemic, Loo estimated.
Oxford's experts
believe the worst-case scenario will likely be avoided, but the risks are
sky-high if either side miscalculates in the upcoming talks.
"Rare earths
appear to be being used as bargaining chips, with both sides probing red lines
while leaving room for another tariff truce, which is still our forecast
working assumption," Loo wrote.
------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-10
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: Job creation tops expectations:
The Canadian economy added more jobs than expected in September, but the
unemployment rate held steady as more people entered the workforce. Employment
rose by 60,400 positions, driven by increases in full-time work. The jobless
rate was unchanged at 7.1 per cent. Gains were led by public employment. The
manufacturing sector added 27,800 employees, and agriculture, health care and
other services all added workers. Bloomberg News notes the surprisingly strong
job gains suggest Canada’s job market is showing some resilience to tariff
disputes with the U.S. … and is also likely to boost expectations for a pause
in interest rate cuts at the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled announcement on
Oct. 9.
Silver surges: The record-setting run for the price of gold has been getting plenty of attention, but silver has quietly been doing even better. Silver jumped for a second day near a record as a historic tightening of the London spot market added steam to a rally driven by demand for safe-haven assets. Silver is up more than 75 per cent this year, by far outpacing gold’s advance, as investors seek security in the face of fiscal uncertainties in the U.S., concerns over an overheating equities market and threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence. We’ll discuss with mining investing veteran Rick Rule at 1:15 p.m. EST Friday on BNN Bloomberg.
Linamar makes $300M U.S. deal: A Canadian auto parts company is beefing
up its operations in the United States. Linamar is buying Aludyne’s North
American operations for US$300 million. In its news release announcing the
deal, Linamar nods to the protectionist comment and actions taken by the U.S.
government, saying “The addition of U.S.-based manufacturing assets is expected
to further strengthen Linamar’s ability to support customers locally, which is
increasingly important in today’s dynamic global trade environment. A diversified
geographic footprint ensures resilience and flexibility in responding to
evolving geopolitical and regulatory frameworks.”
[Investopedia, USA]:
--------------------------------------------
2025-10-09
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]:
Israel-Hamas Peace Deal: Israel and Hamas have reached a deal for a truce and
the release of all hostages held by the militant group in Gaza, a major step
toward ending a two-year war that’s devastated the Palestinian territory,
destabilized the Middle East and sparked global protests. The sign of
geopolitical stabilization is expected to give some reassurance to investors,
though reaction has been muted – not surprising, considering most markets are
already at record highs. The price of oil moved slightly lower in early
trading.
Carney defends
Canada’s auto sector: There are some interesting threads emerging after Prime
Minister Carney’s meeting with U.S. President Trump – and one of them is the
future of Canada’s auto sector. Late Wednesday, at the U.S.-Canada Summit in
Toronto, Carney pushed back against Trump’s protectionism in the auto industry,
saying North America’s interwoven supply chain makes U.S. manufacturers more
competitive on costs. “For America to be fully competitive, to be globally
competitive in autos, you need USMCA,” the prime minister said. During Carney’s
visit to the White House on Tuesday, Trump said “He wants to make cars, we want
to make cars, and we’re in competition.” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard
Lutnick, also speaking at the summit meeting, repeated Trump’s position that
the U.S. does not want to see cars made in Canada.
BoC official slams
the banks: One of the top officials at the Bank of Canada has a sharp message
for Canada’s bankers. In a speech this morning in Toronto, Senior Deputy
Governor Carolyn Rogers called Canada’s banking system an “oligopoly,” using
the sector as a key example of how limited competition is restricting growth.
Rogers said the lack of business competition in Canada is a major reason for
the country’s sluggish productivity growth and investment. “It would also be
hard to argue, on any objective measure, that Canada’s banking system is
anything other than an oligopoly,” she said, noting the country’s six biggest
lenders hold over 90 per cent of all banking assets, and are more profitable
than their peers in many other advanced countries. “Many argue that this level
of concentration has clear negative impacts on productivity, innovation,
capital allocation, cost and consumer choice,” she said.
[Investopedia,
USA]: https://www.investopedia.com/lower-interest-rates-are-probably-coming-but-aren-t-a-done-deal-fomc-minutes-suggest-11826863
·
Members of the Federal Reserve's policy
committee are worried about both high inflation and the faltering job market,
according to minutes from their most recent meeting released Wednesday.
·
While the job market is the predominant
concern, higher-than-expected inflation could deter future rate cuts.
· The minutes offered a barometer of Fed officials' thinking in advance of the FOMC's next meeting on Oct. 28 and 29.
-------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-08
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry
Cain - Canada]: PM Carney returns to Ottawa: Prime Minister Mark Carney is
returning to Ottawa today without any official deals to remove U.S. tariffs
from Canadian goods, after meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in
Washington on Tuesday. Canada’s Minister for U.S. Trade, Dominic Leblanc, told
reporters that substantial progress was made and both leaders directed their
teams to move quickly on sector-specific trade deals starting with steel,
aluminum and energy. Leblanc, along with Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand,
will stay in Washington today for further meetings.
Gold surpasses
US$4,000: Gold has surpassed $4,000 an ounce for the first time, as concerns
over the U.S. economy and a government shutdown adds fresh momentum to the
rally. It’s a milestone for bullion, which has jumped more than 50% this year
in the face of uncertainties over global trade. Heightened geopolitical
tensions have also boosted demand for haven assets this year, while central
banks have continued to buy the precious metal at an elevated pace.
Postal workers union to meet with Ottawa: The union representing striking Canada Post employees is meeting with the minister responsible for the corporation today. This comes after the union accused Ottawa of trampling on the collective bargaining process. Postal workers started striking almost two weeks ago after the federal government announced a number of sweeping changes to the mail delivery system that would allow Canada Post to overhaul its operations in the midst of negotiations. The union is asking the minister to roll back these changes.
------------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-07
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry
Cain - Canada]: Trump talks tariffs: Ahead of his meeting with Prime Minister
Mark Carney, U.S. President Donald Trump is indicating that he remains
committed to realigning global trade and taking business from Canada through
his tariff regime. “I guess he’s going to ask about tariffs,” Trump said when
asked about the upcoming meeting with Carney. “Because a lot of companies from
Canada are moving into the United States, you know, everybody’s moving back
into the U.S., and he’s probably going to be asking about tariffs. They’re
losing a lot of companies in Canada.” Canadian officials have been downplaying
expectations of a major breakthrough on trade at today’s meeting, while indicating
steel tariffs will be a major point of focus.
Canada’s tariff
scenarios: The U.S. trade war has already hit the Canadian economy, but the
tariff path ahead could still lead to anything from modestly slower growth to a
recession, a new report says. Looking at three possible tariff paths, the
report by BMO says that even the more optimistic scenario of tariffs staying at
the roughly seven per cent level could mean a 1.5 per cent drop in long-term
GDP, compared with the outlook at the start of the year. A worst-case scenario
with a 35 per cent tariff across the board could mean a moderate recession in
the short-term and five per cent shaved off long-term economic growth, while a
middle scenario of tariffs averaging 15 per cent could mean significantly
slower growth in the near-term and 2.5 per cent cut to growth. BMO chief
economist Douglas Porter says the most likely path seems to be a continuation
of current tariff rates. “We call it the ‘muddle through’ scenario,” Porter
said. “We do believe that something close to the average tariff on Canada is
about what we’re going to be left with.”
Movement on U.S.
government shutdown: With the U.S. government shutdown closing in on the one
week mark, President Trump is showing willingness to make a deal. Trump said he
was open to negotiating with Democrats over health care subsidies on Monday to
bring an end to the funding stalemate, at one point suggesting those talks had
already begun. The remarks appeared to mark a shift after days of Republicans
maintaining they’d only consider a possible extension of Obamacare subsidies
after Democrats first passed legislation to fund the government.
U.S. takes stake in
Vancouver miner: The U.S. government is taking a 10 per cent stake in Canadian
minerals explorer Trilogy Metals Inc. as part of a US$35.6 million investment
to secure critical energy and mining projects in Alaska. In an announcement
Monday, Trump said the White House is reversing a Biden-era decision to reject
Ambler Road, a project to help access vast critical mineral deposits in
Alaska’s Northern Brooks Range. The highway would connect a remote mining
district with deposits of copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium and other
minerals. Trilogy Metals has mining claims in remote areas of Alaska. The
government deal also includes warrants to purchase an additional 7.5 per cent
of the Vancouver-based company. The news sent Trilogy shares up more than 200
per cent in the premarket.
[Investopedia,
USA]: The last few times the U.S.
government shut down for days on end, the U.S. economy and financial markets
emerged unscathed—but President Donald Trump's threat to fire federal workers
en masse complicates the outlook this time around.
Trump has threatened
to permanently lay off government workers and end federally funded projects
favored by Democrats during the shutdown. If carried out, those actions could
deal a noticeable blow to the labor market at a time when hiring was already
looking shaky.
"Well, there
could be firings," Trump said last week in an interview on One America
News Network.
"And it could also be other things. We
could cut projects they wanted, favorite projects, and they'd be permanently
cut."
In past shutdowns,
hundreds of thousands of federal workers were sent home without pay. However,
they were brought back to work and given back pay as soon as the shutdown
ended, limiting the damage to the overall job market. Indeed, the U.S. economy
added jobs during the three previous long shutdowns in 2019, 2013, and 1996.
How This Affects The
Economy
Although past
government shutdowns have had little impact on the economy, that could change
if President Trump fires thousands of federal workers. A wave of mass firings
could undermine the labor market at a time when employers are already adding
the fewest jobs in years.
The current shutdown
could prove to be one of the longer ones, as neither Republicans nor Democrats
have yet budged toward a compromise. Financial betting site Polymarket is
currently pricing in 30% odds that the shutdown could last 30 days or more,
making it the longest in history if it exceeds the 35-day shutdowns of 2018 and
2019.
White House officials
have said there could be thousands of permanent layoffs, but have not specified
the timing of the dismissals or which government services would be affected.
Source: https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ogbl#inbox/FMfcgzQcqHRcJJFJGWpwZtDdgJfzLXGb
--------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-06
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: PM Carney heads to Washington:
Prime Minister Mark Carney is preparing to meet with U.S. President Donald
Trump tomorrow in his second visit to the White House since he was elected. CTV
News is reporting that Carney is aiming to find relief for Canada’s steel and
aluminum sectors which have been hit hard by American tariffs. Ottawa appears
to be managing expectations for the meeting, with sources telling The Globe
& Mail that this will just be a working visit, with no breakthroughs
expected.
OPEC+ boosting
production: The price of oil traded higher this morning after OPEC+ agreed to
raise production by a modest amount, staving off traders’ fears of a
super-sized increase. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and partners including Russia backed a 137,000-barrel-a-day
increment, well below some of the possible figures reported before the
decision. Crude has fallen this year on concern worldwide output will top
demand over the next few months.
Tim Hortons raising prices: Bad news for Canadian coffee drinkers – Tim Hortons is raising its prices. In a statement to CTV News, a Tim Hortons spokesperson said the restaurant chain is raising coffee prices for the first time in three years, suggesting that compared to inflation, the price increase of 1.5 per cent per cup was “more than reasonable.” The price of coffee beans has more than doubled, Tim Hortons said, noting that the price hike would boil out to “an average of three cents per cup.”
----------------------------------------------------
2025-10-03
[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to head to
Washington early next week to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump – his
second visit since becoming prime minister.
[Investopedia,
USA]: Reports from private companies
painted a by-now-familiar picture of the job market in September: few were
hiring, few were firing, and the labor market overall looked a little shaky.
Employers announced
54,064 job cuts in September, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a consulting
firm, said Thursday.
That was a 37% decrease from August.
However, the
September numbers contributed to 202,118 cuts in the third quarter, the most
since 2020. Employers planned to add 204,939 jobs in the year through
September, the fewest since 2009.
Economic uncertainty, tariffs, inflation, federal job cuts, and the adoption of artificial intelligence were all hurting job growth, economists at Challenger said in a press release.
-----------------------------------------------
2025-10-02
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry
Cain - Canada]: Alberta proposes new pipeline: Alberta will spearhead an effort
to build a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast, a project that would allow
Canada to more than double its shipments of crude to Asian markets. Premier
Danielle Smith’s government will act as the proponent of a pipeline to carry as
many as one million barrels a day to tankers in British Columbia. If the
project is approved, Alberta intends to seek private capital to own it. The
province is seeking technical advice and help from Enbridge, South Bow and
Trans Mountain. However, none of the companies have agreed to be involved with
the project long-term.
Day 2 of the U.S. government shutdown: The financial world is still closely watching the U.S. government shutdown. The Senate again rejected House Republicans’ stopgap funding bill, prolonging the shutdown with no end in sight. The stalemate is expected to last at least two more days. An economic data blackout during the shutdown this week is also top of mind, as the September jobs report will not be released on Friday, given the Labor Department’s pause on virtually all activity.
[Investopedia,
USA]: The federal government shutdown
will delay key reports on the job market and inflation, making it harder for
officials to decide whether to cut interest rates later this month.
The shutdown affects
the government agencies that produce data the Fed relies on to set interest
rates. That includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will
"completely cease operations" in the event of a shutdown, according
to a memo dated Sept. 26 from its parent agency, the Department of Labor.
The bureau produces the most comprehensive and
widely watched measures of the job market and inflation, including a highly
anticipated monthly jobs report due Friday that will now be delayed.
---------------------------------------------------------
2025-10-01
[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: The Alberta government said Wednesday it plans to submit an application for a new oil pipeline to northwestern British Columbia.
[BNN Bloomberg, Terry
Cain - Canada]: U.S. government shutdown hits markets: The U.S. government has
entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, after lawmakers
failed to reach a funding deal. Essential government services will continue,
but workers may not be paid until the shutdown ends. Non-essential services
will also likely be suspended. Investors are bracing for a blackout in economic
data, as the shutdown means the September jobs report will be delayed. The
economic fallout is expected to ripple nationwide. The shutdown is impacting
financial markets as well, with U.S. stock futures trading lower and the price
of safe-haven gold rising.
Lithium Americas gets
U.S. government investment: One stock trading higher in the pre-market is
Lithium Americas. That's after the U.S. government agreed to acquire a stake in
the Vancouver-based company. The U.S. will take a five per cent stake in
Lithium Americas, as well as a five per cent stake in the company’s Nevada
mining project. That project is forecast to become a major lithium source for
the U.S. domestic supply-chain.
[Investopedia,
USA]: President Donald Trump said he was
imposing 10% tariffs on imports of softwood timber and lumber, as well as
levies on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, in
moves he said were aimed at boosting American production and protecting
national security.
The White House.
“Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses the Threat to National
Security from Imports of Timber, Lumber, and Their Derivative Products.”
The presidential
notice released by the White House noted that kitchen cabinets, vanities and
certain upholstered furniture would face tariffs of 25%. Those would increase
on Jan. 1 to 50% for kitchen cabinets and vanities, and 30% for upholstered furniture,
barring deals struck by the exporting nations with the U.S.
Trump signed a
proclamation invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The
tariffs take effect Oct. 14.
Some of the countries
that have struck trade deals with the U.S. recently won't be hit as hard. Trump
said imports from the U.K. would face 10% levies, while those from the European
Union and Japan would face 15%. The wood tariffs will especially hurt Canada:
The U.S. gets almost a quarter of its softwood lumber from Canada, according to
Fastmarkets, a price and market analysis agency.
"The United
States has been a net importer of lumber since 2016, despite having the
practical production capacity to supply 95% of the United States’ 2024 softwood
consumption," The White House said in a fact sheet outlining the tariffs.
The higher tariffs on
lumber are also expected to boost costs for homeowners and homebuyers. UBS
analysts said that they estimate the lumber tariff would add $720 to the cost
of an average home, while the tariffs on cabinets and vanities would add about
$280 per home. They said, however, that "it is very important to
appreciate the fluidity of the entire tariff situation and understand that the
degree of ultimate levies could vary dramatically from what is anticipated
today."
In posts on his Truth
Social network last week, Trump threatened tariffs: 30% on furniture products
and 50% on kitchen cabinets, which are higher than the initial round of
measures announced yesterday. He also said last week that he would impose
tariffs on patented pharmaceutical imports and heavy truck imports starting
Oct. 1.
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