October 1-15, 2025

2025-10-15

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: U.S. stock futures point high: The S&P 500 was set to open just short of its record high close on Wednesday of last week, boosted by strong earnings. Bank of America rose four per cent in the pre-market after posting a solid beat on profit. Morgan Stanley also topped estimates.

BCE upgraded to Buy at TD, RBC: The telecom provider “is not a top pick, but we believe it has a better growth and balance-sheet trajectory than we have seen for a few years,” TD said. “So, with the recent weakness in the stock, we are upgrading.” At 10:30 a.m. ET, we’ll hear from Desjardins analyst Jerome Dubreuil, who also calls the stock a Buy.

Nuclear energy, uranium stocks moved higher: They surged Tuesday amid optimism that the U.S. is determined to support the power source and build domestic capacity. The Wall Street Journal says America’s military is working on a plan to put small reactors on Army bases where strained power grids can’t match rising demand.

Another blow for Canadian auto manufacturing: Stellantis intends to move production of its Jeep Compass to Illinois, after previously pausing production at its Brampton, Ont., plant in February because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said “I have spoken with Stellantis to stress my disappointment with today’s decision to prioritize investment into the U.S.

[Investopedia, USA]:  Officials at the Federal Reserve are divided about how to set the central bank's key interest rate in the coming months, and may not get the data they need to settle their differences anytime soon.

As evidenced in recent speeches and the minutes of their September meeting, a split is emerging between members of the Federal Open Market Committee. One group is more concerned about the deteriorating labor market and thinks the Fed should lower its benchmark interest rate significantly to stave off job losses. The other group sees inflation as the greater threat, and advocates for a more cautious approach to rate cuts.

Investors broadly expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its next two meetings. However, the path after that is murkier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

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2025-10-14

[Investopedia, USA]:  China subsequently imposed sanctions on U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilding firm Hanwha Ocean, and Beijing and Washington began charging additional port fees on each others’ ships. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer later said on CNBC that Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping still were slated to meet at an undisclosed date.

However, less than 30 minutes before markets closed, Trump wrote on Truth Social that "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution."

Investors also were interpreting a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell early Tuesday afternoon at a National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia. Powell said data show the job market deteriorating, suggesting he and other Fed officials would be willing to cut the central bank's key interest rate in the coming months to boost the job market.

Gold futures were 0.6% higher at $4,155 an ounce at 4 p.m. ET after setting a record high of $4,190 earlier Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell 1.7% to $58.45 a barrel. Bitcoin was at roughly $112,800 after trading near $116,000 late Monday afternoon.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked lower to 4.02% after the bond market was closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, was down 0.2% to 99.03.

In corporate news, banking giants JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) kicked off Q3 earnings season before the bell, and all topped analysts' estimates. JPMorgan stock ended down 1.9% after CEO Jamie Dimon warned "of uncertainty stemming from complex geopolitical conditions, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation." Shares of Wells Fargo closed up 7.2% to lead the S&P 500, while those of Citi and Goldman Sachs were up 3.9% and down 2%, respectively.

If the latest skirmish of words between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping devolves into a full-scale trade war, the U.S. could take an economic hit on par with the onset of COVID-19.

That's according to an analysis Tuesday by Oxford Economics, which underlined the extremely high stakes of the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Late last week, Chinese officials said they were imposing new restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals crucial for the high-tech industry. Trump retaliated Friday by threatening to impose "massive" tariffs on China, but softened that threat over the weekend, saying "it will all be fine."1

The threats of tariffs and rare earth restrictions were both set to take effect in November and may ultimately prove to be nothing more than bargaining ploys. Each side is trying to gain an advantage ahead of an expected meeting between Trump and Xi later this month in South Korea, several experts said.

However, there is still a chance the trade dispute could heat up and seriously hurt the economy at a time when job growth is already slowing, and inflation is on the rise.

"Each side is brandishing leverage but preserving a narrow window for compromise," Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, wrote in a commentary. "Ultimately, the rare-earth move and tariff threat are less about trade than power. Both sides want to show they can’t be coerced. But posturing can harden into policy."

China has already flexed that leverage this year in response to Trump's imposition of triple-digit tariffs on China in April. The two sides settled into a temporary truce in May, with the U.S. lowering its tariffs and China lifting restrictions on rare earth materials. The latest back-and-forth threats undermine that truce.

What This Means For The Economy

If negotiations between the U.S. and China go wrong, China could cut U.S. industries off from crucial supplies, decimating the economy and stoking inflation. The ensuing slowdown in economic growth, combined with higher prices, would be financially painful for U.S. households.

Covid-Like Shock

China dominates the market for refined rare earth metals, which are used in weapons, cars, electronics, and other high-tech products. By cutting off the U.S. from those crucial resources, China could seriously damage the U.S. economy, Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, wrote in an analysis Tuesday.

"If implemented in full, the controls announced by China last week would have a punishing impact on downstream industries globally by delaying production processes, potentially leading to supply chain chokepoints," Loo wrote.

The disruption would ripple through the economy and cause "a shock akin to the early-2020s supply snarls," Loo wrote. Growth in the Gross Domestic Product would slow by an entire percentage point, and wholesale inflation would surge to double-digit levels, similar to the aftermath of the pandemic, Loo estimated.

Oxford's experts believe the worst-case scenario will likely be avoided, but the risks are sky-high if either side miscalculates in the upcoming talks.

"Rare earths appear to be being used as bargaining chips, with both sides probing red lines while leaving room for another tariff truce, which is still our forecast working assumption," Loo wrote.

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2025-10-10

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: Job creation tops expectations: The Canadian economy added more jobs than expected in September, but the unemployment rate held steady as more people entered the workforce. Employment rose by 60,400 positions, driven by increases in full-time work. The jobless rate was unchanged at 7.1 per cent. Gains were led by public employment. The manufacturing sector added 27,800 employees, and agriculture, health care and other services all added workers. Bloomberg News notes the surprisingly strong job gains suggest Canada’s job market is showing some resilience to tariff disputes with the U.S. … and is also likely to boost expectations for a pause in interest rate cuts at the Bank of Canada’s next scheduled announcement on Oct. 9.

Silver surges: The record-setting run for the price of gold has been getting plenty of attention, but silver has quietly been doing even better. Silver jumped for a second day near a record as a historic tightening of the London spot market added steam to a rally driven by demand for safe-haven assets. Silver is up more than 75 per cent this year, by far outpacing gold’s advance, as investors seek security in the face of fiscal uncertainties in the U.S., concerns over an overheating equities market and threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence. We’ll discuss with mining investing veteran Rick Rule at 1:15 p.m. EST Friday on BNN Bloomberg. 

Linamar makes $300M U.S. deal: A Canadian auto parts company is beefing up its operations in the United States. Linamar is buying Aludyne’s North American operations for US$300 million. In its news release announcing the deal, Linamar nods to the protectionist comment and actions taken by the U.S. government, saying “The addition of U.S.-based manufacturing assets is expected to further strengthen Linamar’s ability to support customers locally, which is increasingly important in today’s dynamic global trade environment. A diversified geographic footprint ensures resilience and flexibility in responding to evolving geopolitical and regulatory frameworks.”

[Investopedia, USA]: 

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2025-10-09

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: Israel-Hamas Peace Deal: Israel and Hamas have reached a deal for a truce and the release of all hostages held by the militant group in Gaza, a major step toward ending a two-year war that’s devastated the Palestinian territory, destabilized the Middle East and sparked global protests. The sign of geopolitical stabilization is expected to give some reassurance to investors, though reaction has been muted – not surprising, considering most markets are already at record highs. The price of oil moved slightly lower in early trading.

Carney defends Canada’s auto sector: There are some interesting threads emerging after Prime Minister Carney’s meeting with U.S. President Trump – and one of them is the future of Canada’s auto sector. Late Wednesday, at the U.S.-Canada Summit in Toronto, Carney pushed back against Trump’s protectionism in the auto industry, saying North America’s interwoven supply chain makes U.S. manufacturers more competitive on costs. “For America to be fully competitive, to be globally competitive in autos, you need USMCA,” the prime minister said. During Carney’s visit to the White House on Tuesday, Trump said “He wants to make cars, we want to make cars, and we’re in competition.” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, also speaking at the summit meeting, repeated Trump’s position that the U.S. does not want to see cars made in Canada.

BoC official slams the banks: One of the top officials at the Bank of Canada has a sharp message for Canada’s bankers. In a speech this morning in Toronto, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers called Canada’s banking system an “oligopoly,” using the sector as a key example of how limited competition is restricting growth. Rogers said the lack of business competition in Canada is a major reason for the country’s sluggish productivity growth and investment. “It would also be hard to argue, on any objective measure, that Canada’s banking system is anything other than an oligopoly,” she said, noting the country’s six biggest lenders hold over 90 per cent of all banking assets, and are more profitable than their peers in many other advanced countries. “Many argue that this level of concentration has clear negative impacts on productivity, innovation, capital allocation, cost and consumer choice,” she said.

[Investopedia, USA]:  https://www.investopedia.com/lower-interest-rates-are-probably-coming-but-aren-t-a-done-deal-fomc-minutes-suggest-11826863

·         Members of the Federal Reserve's policy committee are worried about both high inflation and the faltering job market, according to minutes from their most recent meeting released Wednesday.

·         While the job market is the predominant concern, higher-than-expected inflation could deter future rate cuts.

·         The minutes offered a barometer of Fed officials' thinking in advance of the FOMC's next meeting on Oct. 28 and 29.

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2025-10-08

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: PM Carney returns to Ottawa: Prime Minister Mark Carney is returning to Ottawa today without any official deals to remove U.S. tariffs from Canadian goods, after meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday. Canada’s Minister for U.S. Trade, Dominic Leblanc, told reporters that substantial progress was made and both leaders directed their teams to move quickly on sector-specific trade deals starting with steel, aluminum and energy. Leblanc, along with Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand, will stay in Washington today for further meetings.

Gold surpasses US$4,000: Gold has surpassed $4,000 an ounce for the first time, as concerns over the U.S. economy and a government shutdown adds fresh momentum to the rally. It’s a milestone for bullion, which has jumped more than 50% this year in the face of uncertainties over global trade. Heightened geopolitical tensions have also boosted demand for haven assets this year, while central banks have continued to buy the precious metal at an elevated pace.

Postal workers union to meet with Ottawa: The union representing striking Canada Post employees is meeting with the minister responsible for the corporation today. This comes after the union accused Ottawa of trampling on the collective bargaining process. Postal workers started striking almost two weeks ago after the federal government announced a number of sweeping changes to the mail delivery system that would allow Canada Post to overhaul its operations in the midst of negotiations. The union is asking the minister to roll back these changes.

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2025-10-07

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: Trump talks tariffs: Ahead of his meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney, U.S. President Donald Trump is indicating that he remains committed to realigning global trade and taking business from Canada through his tariff regime. “I guess he’s going to ask about tariffs,” Trump said when asked about the upcoming meeting with Carney. “Because a lot of companies from Canada are moving into the United States, you know, everybody’s moving back into the U.S., and he’s probably going to be asking about tariffs. They’re losing a lot of companies in Canada.” Canadian officials have been downplaying expectations of a major breakthrough on trade at today’s meeting, while indicating steel tariffs will be a major point of focus.

Canada’s tariff scenarios: The U.S. trade war has already hit the Canadian economy, but the tariff path ahead could still lead to anything from modestly slower growth to a recession, a new report says. Looking at three possible tariff paths, the report by BMO says that even the more optimistic scenario of tariffs staying at the roughly seven per cent level could mean a 1.5 per cent drop in long-term GDP, compared with the outlook at the start of the year. A worst-case scenario with a 35 per cent tariff across the board could mean a moderate recession in the short-term and five per cent shaved off long-term economic growth, while a middle scenario of tariffs averaging 15 per cent could mean significantly slower growth in the near-term and 2.5 per cent cut to growth. BMO chief economist Douglas Porter says the most likely path seems to be a continuation of current tariff rates. “We call it the ‘muddle through’ scenario,” Porter said. “We do believe that something close to the average tariff on Canada is about what we’re going to be left with.”

Movement on U.S. government shutdown: With the U.S. government shutdown closing in on the one week mark, President Trump is showing willingness to make a deal. Trump said he was open to negotiating with Democrats over health care subsidies on Monday to bring an end to the funding stalemate, at one point suggesting those talks had already begun. The remarks appeared to mark a shift after days of Republicans maintaining they’d only consider a possible extension of Obamacare subsidies after Democrats first passed legislation to fund the government.

U.S. takes stake in Vancouver miner: The U.S. government is taking a 10 per cent stake in Canadian minerals explorer Trilogy Metals Inc. as part of a US$35.6 million investment to secure critical energy and mining projects in Alaska. In an announcement Monday, Trump said the White House is reversing a Biden-era decision to reject Ambler Road, a project to help access vast critical mineral deposits in Alaska’s Northern Brooks Range. The highway would connect a remote mining district with deposits of copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium and other minerals. Trilogy Metals has mining claims in remote areas of Alaska. The government deal also includes warrants to purchase an additional 7.5 per cent of the Vancouver-based company. The news sent Trilogy shares up more than 200 per cent in the premarket.

[Investopedia, USA]:  The last few times the U.S. government shut down for days on end, the U.S. economy and financial markets emerged unscathed—but President Donald Trump's threat to fire federal workers en masse complicates the outlook this time around.

Trump has threatened to permanently lay off government workers and end federally funded projects favored by Democrats during the shutdown. If carried out, those actions could deal a noticeable blow to the labor market at a time when hiring was already looking shaky.

"Well, there could be firings," Trump said last week in an interview on One America News Network.

 "And it could also be other things. We could cut projects they wanted, favorite projects, and they'd be permanently cut."

In past shutdowns, hundreds of thousands of federal workers were sent home without pay. However, they were brought back to work and given back pay as soon as the shutdown ended, limiting the damage to the overall job market. Indeed, the U.S. economy added jobs during the three previous long shutdowns in 2019, 2013, and 1996.

How This Affects The Economy

Although past government shutdowns have had little impact on the economy, that could change if President Trump fires thousands of federal workers. A wave of mass firings could undermine the labor market at a time when employers are already adding the fewest jobs in years.

The current shutdown could prove to be one of the longer ones, as neither Republicans nor Democrats have yet budged toward a compromise. Financial betting site Polymarket is currently pricing in 30% odds that the shutdown could last 30 days or more, making it the longest in history if it exceeds the 35-day shutdowns of 2018 and 2019.

White House officials have said there could be thousands of permanent layoffs, but have not specified the timing of the dismissals or which government services would be affected.

Source: https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ogbl#inbox/FMfcgzQcqHRcJJFJGWpwZtDdgJfzLXGb

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2025-10-06

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: PM Carney heads to Washington: Prime Minister Mark Carney is preparing to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump tomorrow in his second visit to the White House since he was elected. CTV News is reporting that Carney is aiming to find relief for Canada’s steel and aluminum sectors which have been hit hard by American tariffs. Ottawa appears to be managing expectations for the meeting, with sources telling The Globe & Mail that this will just be a working visit, with no breakthroughs expected.

OPEC+ boosting production: The price of oil traded higher this morning after OPEC+ agreed to raise production by a modest amount, staving off traders’ fears of a super-sized increase. On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners including Russia backed a 137,000-barrel-a-day increment, well below some of the possible figures reported before the decision. Crude has fallen this year on concern worldwide output will top demand over the next few months.

Tim Hortons raising prices: Bad news for Canadian coffee drinkers – Tim Hortons is raising its prices. In a statement to CTV News, a Tim Hortons spokesperson said the restaurant chain is raising coffee prices for the first time in three years, suggesting that compared to inflation, the price increase of 1.5 per cent per cup was “more than reasonable.” The price of coffee beans has more than doubled, Tim Hortons said, noting that the price hike would boil out to “an average of three cents per cup.”

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2025-10-03

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to head to Washington early next week to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump – his second visit since becoming prime minister.   

[Investopedia, USA]:  Reports from private companies painted a by-now-familiar picture of the job market in September: few were hiring, few were firing, and the labor market overall looked a little shaky.

Employers announced 54,064 job cuts in September, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a consulting firm, said Thursday.

 That was a 37% decrease from August.

However, the September numbers contributed to 202,118 cuts in the third quarter, the most since 2020. Employers planned to add 204,939 jobs in the year through September, the fewest since 2009.

Economic uncertainty, tariffs, inflation, federal job cuts, and the adoption of artificial intelligence were all hurting job growth, economists at Challenger said in a press release.

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2025-10-02

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: Alberta proposes new pipeline: Alberta will spearhead an effort to build a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast, a project that would allow Canada to more than double its shipments of crude to Asian markets. Premier Danielle Smith’s government will act as the proponent of a pipeline to carry as many as one million barrels a day to tankers in British Columbia. If the project is approved, Alberta intends to seek private capital to own it. The province is seeking technical advice and help from Enbridge, South Bow and Trans Mountain. However, none of the companies have agreed to be involved with the project long-term.

Day 2 of the U.S. government shutdown: The financial world is still closely watching the U.S. government shutdown. The Senate again rejected House Republicans’ stopgap funding bill, prolonging the shutdown with no end in sight. The stalemate is expected to last at least two more days. An economic data blackout during the shutdown this week is also top of mind, as the September jobs report will not be released on Friday, given the Labor Department’s pause on virtually all activity.

[Investopedia, USA]:  The federal government shutdown will delay key reports on the job market and inflation, making it harder for officials to decide whether to cut interest rates later this month.

The shutdown affects the government agencies that produce data the Fed relies on to set interest rates. That includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will "completely cease operations" in the event of a shutdown, according to a memo dated Sept. 26 from its parent agency, the Department of Labor.

 The bureau produces the most comprehensive and widely watched measures of the job market and inflation, including a highly anticipated monthly jobs report due Friday that will now be delayed.

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2025-10-01

[BNN Bloomberg, Canada]: The Alberta government said Wednesday it plans to submit an application for a new oil pipeline to northwestern British Columbia.

[BNN Bloomberg, Terry Cain - Canada]: U.S. government shutdown hits markets: The U.S. government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, after lawmakers failed to reach a funding deal. Essential government services will continue, but workers may not be paid until the shutdown ends. Non-essential services will also likely be suspended. Investors are bracing for a blackout in economic data, as the shutdown means the September jobs report will be delayed. The economic fallout is expected to ripple nationwide. The shutdown is impacting financial markets as well, with U.S. stock futures trading lower and the price of safe-haven gold rising.

Lithium Americas gets U.S. government investment: One stock trading higher in the pre-market is Lithium Americas. That's after the U.S. government agreed to acquire a stake in the Vancouver-based company. The U.S. will take a five per cent stake in Lithium Americas, as well as a five per cent stake in the company’s Nevada mining project. That project is forecast to become a major lithium source for the U.S. domestic supply-chain.

[Investopedia, USA]:  President Donald Trump said he was imposing 10% tariffs on imports of softwood timber and lumber, as well as levies on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities and upholstered furniture, in moves he said were aimed at boosting American production and protecting national security.

The White House. “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Addresses the Threat to National Security from Imports of Timber, Lumber, and Their Derivative Products.”

The presidential notice released by the White House noted that kitchen cabinets, vanities and certain upholstered furniture would face tariffs of 25%. Those would increase on Jan. 1 to 50% for kitchen cabinets and vanities, and 30% for upholstered furniture, barring deals struck by the exporting nations with the U.S.

Trump signed a proclamation invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The tariffs take effect Oct. 14.

Some of the countries that have struck trade deals with the U.S. recently won't be hit as hard. Trump said imports from the U.K. would face 10% levies, while those from the European Union and Japan would face 15%. The wood tariffs will especially hurt Canada: The U.S. gets almost a quarter of its softwood lumber from Canada, according to Fastmarkets, a price and market analysis agency.        

"The United States has been a net importer of lumber since 2016, despite having the practical production capacity to supply 95% of the United States’ 2024 softwood consumption," The White House said in a fact sheet outlining the tariffs.

The higher tariffs on lumber are also expected to boost costs for homeowners and homebuyers. UBS analysts said that they estimate the lumber tariff would add $720 to the cost of an average home, while the tariffs on cabinets and vanities would add about $280 per home. They said, however, that "it is very important to appreciate the fluidity of the entire tariff situation and understand that the degree of ultimate levies could vary dramatically from what is anticipated today."

In posts on his Truth Social network last week, Trump threatened tariffs: 30% on furniture products and 50% on kitchen cabinets, which are higher than the initial round of measures announced yesterday. He also said last week that he would impose tariffs on patented pharmaceutical imports and heavy truck imports starting Oct. 1.